Crystal Ball & 8 Ball — September 2024
Last month the 8 ball said August tends to cool off. August did the opposite — violently. The median range came in at 405.4 points ($811) — a staggering 73% above normal. That's not a quiet summer month; that's one of the widest months on record.
The story is one day: August 5 ran 1,048 points — a wide-chop panic day that reset the whole month's tone. After that, the month was mostly churn: 13 wide-chop days out of 22, only 5 clean trend-up. Big range, not much clean direction — exactly the "thin-liquidity surprise turns quiet violent" risk the 8 ball flagged. The full moon (Aug 19–21) and OpEx (Aug 16) passed unremarkably against all that volatility.
What was happening in the world: [NEWS — verify before publishing] - August 5 was a global sell-off / volatility spike — the yen carry-trade unwind and recession-fear whoosh. [verify] - Rapid recovery through mid-late August as fears faded. [verify] - Fed Jackson Hole symposium signaled rate cuts ahead (late Aug). [verify] - (Confirm/add any others you recall.)
The lesson: the 8 ball said "quiet," the world said "not today." Tendencies bend to catalysts.
🎱 SHAKE SHAKE SHAKE 🎱
🎱 8 Ball — September 2024 Ahead
Shake it. September has historically been the choppiest month in the record — median range about 8% below normal, but with a 68% chop rate, the highest of any month, and a notably weak up-lean (18% up). September is where trends go to die and ranges go to grind.
The 8 ball's read: September tends to be low-conviction chop — wide enough to hurt, rarely clean enough to reward trend-chasing. Classic "fade the edges, don't chase the breakout" territory.
The caveat writes itself after August: a September catalyst (and September has a history of them) can override the tendency entirely. But absent a shock, the base case is churn.
The honest lean: treat September as a range month until proven otherwise. Smaller size, patience, respect the chop.
Above the shake: what happened. Below it: what might.
— 23HT