Crystal Ball & 8 Ball — October 2024
The 8 ball called September "choppy and quiet." Half right: it was choppy — 11 wide-chop days out of 20 — but it wasn't quiet. Median range hit 292.5 points ($585), about 24% above normal. The reputation for a sleepy September didn't hold this year.
It came out swinging: September 3 ran 772 points as a trend-down day — the widest of the month, right at the open. From there it was mostly churn with a slight up-lean on the trend days (25% up vs. 15% down). The triple-witching day (Sept 20) was the tightest day of the month at just 93 points — a textbook expiration compression, exactly the pin effect the almanac shows. And the full moon (Sept 17–19) ran wide, including a 567-point day on the 19th.
What was happening in the world: [NEWS — verify before publishing] - The Fed's first rate cut of the cycle (Sept 18) — a 50bp cut. [verify] - Markets rallied into and after the cut. [verify] - China stimulus announcements late September boosted risk sentiment. [verify] - (Confirm/add others.)
Note the honesty scorecard: two months running, the 8 ball's "quiet" call got overrun by real range. Something to watch.
🎱 SHAKE SHAKE SHAKE 🎱
🎱 8 Ball — October 2024 Ahead
Shake it. October has historically been near-normal — median range about 1% below baseline, essentially average, with the healthiest up-lean of the autumn months (28% up vs. 17% down) and a moderate 54% chop rate.
So the 8 ball's read: October tends to be the most "normal" and mildly bullish of the fall — less chop than September, a bit more willingness to trend, roughly average range. Historically a more tradeable month for A-setups than September's grind.
The standing caveat: after a summer where every "quiet" call got blown out, don't marry the tendency. October also has a famous history of sharp single-day events. Near-normal on average can still contain a wild day.
The honest lean: October looks more trend-friendly than September on the record — but keep the stops honest into a historically event-prone month.
Above the shake: what happened. Below it: what might.
— 23HT