Crystal Ball & 8 Ball — November 2024
October came in 26% above normal — median range 297.5 points ($595) — and it was the most balanced month in a while: 5 trend-up days, 5 trend-down, 13 wide-chop. Dead even (22% up / 22% down). Nobody won October; it churned wide in both directions.
It opened on its widest day — October 1 ran 513 points of wide-chop — and the tightest was Oct 24 at 167. OpEx (Oct 18) and the full moon (Oct 16–18) clustered mid-month and ran ordinary. Observances: Rosh Hashanah (Oct 3) and Halloween (Oct 31).
What was happening in the world: [NEWS — verify before publishing] - Markets consolidating ahead of the U.S. presidential election (Nov 5). [verify] - Big-tech earnings through late October moved the tape. [verify] - Rising Treasury yields pressured risk assets. [verify] - (Confirm/add.)
October's even, two-sided churn reads like a market holding its breath before November's known catalyst.
🎱 SHAKE SHAKE SHAKE 🎱
🎱 8 Ball — November 2024 Ahead
Shake it. November has historically been quiet and bullish — median range about 14% below normal (204 pts), the strongest up-lean of the calendar (29% up vs. just 12% down), moderate chop. On the record, November is one of the friendliest months for longs.
So the 8 ball's read: November tends to drift up on quieter range — a seasonally strong, lower-volatility month.
But the enormous asterisk this year: the election falls on November 5. A known, scheduled, market-moving catalyst sits right at the front of the month. The historical "quiet November" tendency was built mostly on non-election years. Expect the first week to potentially override the entire seasonal pattern — big range around the result, then possibly a return to the quieter up-drift the record favors.
The honest lean: seasonally bullish and quiet — but the election could hijack the first week entirely. Respect the event; don't trade the average through a known catalyst.
Above the shake: what happened. Below it: what might.
— 23HT