Crystal Ball & 8 Ball — March 2025
February ran +54% — median 371 points ($742) — and unlike January's pure churn, it actually picked sides: 5 trend-up, 5 trend-down, 9 wide-chop. A genuinely two-sided month where both bulls and bears got their days.
The tone soured at the end: February 27 ran 804 points as a trend-DOWN day — the widest of the month and a sharp late-month flush. The full moon (Feb 11–14) clustered right through Valentine's — and note Valentine's Day itself (Feb 14) was one of the quietest at 181 points, a calm island. OpEx (Feb 21) passed before the drop.
What was happening in the world: [NEWS — verify before publishing] - Late-February selloff on growth/tariff fears and softening sentiment. [verify] - Ongoing AI-trade repricing after January's shock. [verify] - (Confirm/add.)
February started balanced and ended heavy — the late-month down-trend day set an ominous tone into March.
🎱 SHAKE SHAKE SHAKE 🎱
🎱 8 Ball — March 2025 Ahead
Shake it. March has historically been one of the widest, most active months on the record — median range about +36% over baseline, with the best up-lean of the group (30% up vs. 21% down) and lower chop (49%). March tends to move, and historically it's leaned up.
So the 8 ball's read: March tends to be wide and more trend-friendly than the winter chop — a month that picks directions rather than just churning.
The caveat: March also carries triple-witching (mid-month), which reliably compresses that one day hard — expect a pin in the middle of an otherwise wide month. And February closed on a heavy down day; a wide March that leans the wrong way early could get ugly fast given the jumpy macro.
The honest lean: expect a wide, directional March — more A-setup potential than the winter months offered — but respect the triple-witch pin day and the possibility that "directional" means down if February's late weakness carries over.
Above the shake: what happened. Below it: what might.
— 23HT