Crystal Ball & 8 Ball — February 2025
January came in hot — median range 414.8 points ($830), +73% over a ~240-point baseline. But "hot" undersells the character: 15 of 21 days were wide-chop. This was a wide, churning, two-sided month — big ranges, little clean direction (only 4 trend-up days, 2 down).
The month ended on a shock: January 27 ran 1,010 points — a four-figure single-day range, one of the widest days since the COVID era. It landed as a wide-chop day, not a clean trend, which tells you how violent and two-sided it was. The full moon (Jan 13–15) ran wide too — 343 / 370 / 544. Tightest day was Jan 9 at 131. OpEx (Jan 17) passed mid-month.
What was happening in the world: [NEWS — verify before publishing] - The Jan 27 spike coincided with the DeepSeek AI selloff that rattled tech/megacap names. [verify] - New U.S. administration inaugurated Jan 20; policy/tariff headlines active. [verify] - (Confirm/add.)
January was a churn-storm capped by one genuinely historic day.
🎱 SHAKE SHAKE SHAKE 🎱
🎱 8 Ball — February 2025 Ahead
Shake it. February has historically run warm — median range about +21% over baseline, dead-even direction (22% up / 21% down), 57% chop. A moderately active, balanced month on the record.
So the 8 ball's read: February tends to be busier than average but not directional — two-sided range, no strong seasonal lean either way.
The caveat, fresh off January: the tendency says +21%, but January "should have" been warm and instead ran +73% with a four-figure day. When the macro backdrop is this jumpy (AI-driven megacap swings, policy headlines), the calendar tendency is the floor, not the ceiling. Respect that a single headline can double the expected range.
The honest lean: expect an active, two-sided February — trade the range, keep stops honest, and don't be shocked by another outsized day if the macro stays loud.
Above the shake: what happened. Below it: what might.
— 23HT