Crystal Ball & 8 Ball — December 2024
The 8 ball called November "quiet and bullish," and this time it mostly landed. Median range was 269.6 points ($539), +14% — wider than the historical November but modest by 2024's hot standards — with a clear up-lean (20% up vs. just 10% down) and a very high 70% chop rate. Grindy, but the grind went up.
The election catalyst hit exactly as flagged: November 6 (the day after) ran 612 points as a trend-up day — the widest of the month, a clean post-election surge. The full moon (Nov 15) coincided with OpEx (Nov 15) and ran wide at 575. The tightest day was Nov 8 at 145. Observance: Veterans Day (Nov 11).
What was happening in the world: [NEWS — verify before publishing] - U.S. presidential election Nov 5; decisive market reaction Nov 6. [verify] - Post-election rally on policy expectations. [verify] - Fed rate decision late November. [verify] - (Confirm/add.)
November honored both the seasonal up-lean and the event risk we flagged — the 8 ball's best month yet.
🎱 SHAKE SHAKE SHAKE 🎱
🎱 8 Ball — December 2024 Ahead
Shake it. December has historically been the quietest month of the entire year — median range about 20% below normal (190 pts), the tightest on the record, with a mild up-lean (26% up vs. 15% down). The "Santa Claus" seasonality shows up as a low-volatility upward drift.
So the 8 ball's read: December tends to be the calmest, gently-bullish month — thin holiday liquidity, compressed range, a slow drift higher into year-end.
The caveats: triple-witching (Dec 20) sits mid-month and historically compresses range hard — expect a pin day. And thin holiday liquidity cuts both ways: usually it means quiet, but on the rare occasion a catalyst hits an empty book, December can produce one violent outlier day (watch for it rather than expect it).
The honest lean: quietest month of the year, mild up-drift, a likely pin on Dec 20 — trade lighter, take the smaller targets the range gives you, and keep one eye open for the thin-liquidity surprise.
Above the shake: what happened. Below it: what might.
— 23HT