Crystal Ball & 8 Ball — August 2024
July came in hot. Against a running baseline of ~233 points, the month's median range was 314.9 points ($630) — about 35% wider than normal. This was not a quiet summer month.
The character was mixed but active: 8 trend-up days, 4 trend-down, and 10 wide-chop — so more than half the month was two-sided churn, but the trend days leaned up (36% up vs. 18% down). Buyers had the edge on the days that picked a direction.
The month saved its biggest move for last: July 31 ran a massive 783 points and closed as a trend-up day. The tightest day was July 8 at just 109. The full moon (July 22–23) landed mid-month and ran about average — nothing dramatic. Monthly options expiration (July 19) passed without the sharp compression it sometimes brings.
What was happening in the world: [NEWS — verify before publishing] - Markets were digesting rate-cut expectations as inflation data cooled through the summer. [verify] - The late-July surge tied to megacap tech earnings and shifting Fed-cut odds. [verify] - Political turbulence in the U.S. presidential race intensified through July. [verify] - (Add/confirm 1–2 more you remember moving the tape.)
The takeaway: July was a wide, active, buyer-leaning month that ended with a bang.
🎱 SHAKE SHAKE SHAKE 🎱
🎱 8 Ball — August 2024 Ahead
Shake it, and here's the tendency — not a promise. Historically, August has been one of the quieter months on the Nasdaq: across the record so far, August's median range runs about 10% below a normal day (210 pts), with a high chop rate (55%) and a modest up-lean (26% up vs. 19% down).
So the 8 ball's read: August tends to cool off and chop. Summer doldrums, lighter participation, more churn than clean trend.
But — a caution the crystal ball earned us this month: July also "should have" been calmer and instead ran 35% hot. Tendencies are averages, and any single August can shrug off the average entirely (especially if a news catalyst hits thin summer liquidity — that's exactly when quiet months turn violent).
The honest lean for August: expect chop and quieter range, trade lighter, don't force trends — but keep your stops honest, because a thin-liquidity surprise is the one thing that turns a sleepy August into a fast one.
Above the shake: what happened. Below it: what might. Don't let them blur.
— 23HT